Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecast. Show all posts

Thursday, 22 October 2009

Cash In For Success - Lesson 1

So, cash is king. If you want good cashflow you speed up your receipts and slow down your payments. Simple! Well, perhaps simpler to say than to do. And the payments side of the equation is actually a lot easier to improve than the receipts, because you have control over payments. You have the money and you will decide when to pay it out and how much to pay. The receipts side of the equation is under someone else's control, namely your customers or clients. And just like you, they can decide when to pay and how much to pay. That makes it difficult for you trying to manage your cash.

In fact I would say that getting customers to pay reliably on time is one of the biggest headaches a small business will face, if not the biggest. But there are things that you can do to reduce the problem, even if you can't quite eradicate it. Let me encourage you. I have seen a small business, with less than £10m turnover, reduce its overdue customer invoices to a handful. It takes persistence and concentrated effort, tough credit control and good honest communication with customers. But it is possible to get good control of your customer receipts.

Over the next few editions of CF&M I am going to give several tips that will help you to do this. It's possible that you have heard these things before, but cashflow is so important that it bears repeating.

The things I'll cover will include:
  • Credit checks
  • Credit Limits
  • Getting details right
  • Invoice timing
  • Credit control procedures
  • Chasing invoices for payment
  • Payment methods
But first I want to re-emphasise the importance of cashflow forecasts. Cashflow forecasts do not need to be complicated. But they are invaluable when you are trying to make sure you keep enough money in the bank. They give you confidence in the payments you are making, because you know how much cash will be left for the future. It gives you a chance of building up cash reserves to make an investment in new equipment or similar things. It shows you whether there is capacity to take money out of the business in dividends or bonuses. And it gives you early warnings of any problems that you may want to seek help with from your bank or investors.

One of the barriers that small business owners sometimes come up against in doing cashflow forecasts is that they don't know how to set one up on a spreadsheet. They don't have the confidence to do it. If they had a template they might be able to have a stab at doing it.

Well, if you subscribed to the Creative Finance & Management newsletter, you will have no excuse! You will have received from me a free cashflow forecast spreadsheet template.

If you haven't yet subscribed and you want the template, then go to the top of this page and in the sidebar there is form where you can input your name and email address. This will add you to the mailing list. You will receive an email to confirm you want to join the mailing list. After you have clicked on the "opt-in" link, you will receive an email with a link to a download page. On that page are the two free full-length articles I give to all new subscribers, and the cashflow forecast template will be on there too.

Got it? OK. I won't give you too many tips here for completing it. I think it's quite self-explanatory. Just fill in the yellow boxes. Why don't you spend an hour or two giving it a try to see how you get on?

Ok, my only three tips to get you started:
  1. Start by going through the lines that don't relate to customer receipts or supplier payments (by supplier payments I mean payments of invoices that are on your AP/purchase ledger). Those are the hardest and you will get a lot of encouragement by getting the easier ones ticked off first.
  2. When you forecast customer receipts you will need to have your up to date debtors list handy, and first go through it and make sure that you forecast the receipt of everything currently owed to you. Then forecast your sales (including VAT) and predict when those forecast sales will be paid for. Then add them to the receipts you have already forecast.
  3. Use exact numbers wherever you can. But don't get hung up on getting it down to the last penny. You need to be able to update this every week in less than an hour. There's a balance to be struck. If you are estimating everything just to get it done, then you need to slow down and make sure you think about where you can possibly put in something more exact. If you are spending hours sifting through purchase ledger invoices to check payment terms and exact amounts, then you should probably step back and consider whether you will actually see the big picture any more clearly for all that hard work.
If you take this seriously I guarantee that two things will happen:

a) You will learn something about the financial dynamics of your business that will help you make decisions. You may even yourself adjusting some of your actions and decisions as you go through the exercise. And,

b) You will gain confidence in the payments you have to make and the actions you need to take to get customers to pay.

I'm interested to hear how you get on. Let me know at newsletter@charisfd.com.

Monday, 1 June 2009

Cash is King

First the basics - some would say the obvious – the fundamental requirement in keeping a business alive is cash. Not customers, and not profit – you can have both of those things and still have a business failure. Cash is like the lifeblood of a business. That’s why the maxim, “Cash in King” is so true.

Anyone in business should have heard this. But it may still seem confusing to you how you can be profitable and run out of cash and fail. If that’s the case then you can think more clearly about this by remembering one word – timing. Very simple example – I buy a car for £5,000 and sell it for £10,000. There is no question that I have a good customer and I have made a profit. But if I have to pay for the car tomorrow, and I am not going to get money from the customer until next week, then my business will fail if I don’t have £5,000 cash to pay for the car tomorrow.

The basics of cash flow management, really, are that to maintain the level of cash required to survive (zero or, perhaps, less if you have an overdraft facility) you must have more cash coming in than going out.

Sometimes the business is so consistently loss-making that it requires constant propping up by lenders and investors. Cash going out is more than sales receipts coming in, so more and more capital is required to ensure that the cash does not run out.

I worked with one such small business. The thing that amazed me at the time was that even after the last lot of capital had been used up, even though each month’s accounts showed a loss, even with no overdraft facility, the business managed to continue two months longer than anyone thought possible... and long enough to allow a rescue.

How did we do that? I think there were three key things that we did (apart from the obvious cost control actions that were necessary):

First, we produced cashflow forecasts in detail every week. The forecasts went forward 6 months - weekly for the first 3 months, then monthly after that. The base forecast detail was based on the same assumptions as the profit and loss forecast and went to quite a low level of detail. It showed very clearly when the shortage of cash would occur, how long it would last and how big the shortfall would be.

To get a feel for the level of detail, on the income side we forecasted three categories – i) receipts from debtors (i.e. cash for invoices already raised, based on payment terms and specific knowledge of each customer); ii) receipts from customers on projects not yet started, but the work has been ordered (i.e. so we know roughly when we should be invoicing for the work, how much and how long it will take to collect the cash); iii) receipts from deals in the sales pipeline and therefore may or may not come to fruition (i.e. there have to be probability judgments around which proposals will be successful, what the agreed prices will be, what invoicing timing will be agreed, and when the projects will start).

On the expenses side we forecasted different types of expenditure depending on its materiality and timing. Salaries, bonuses and commissions were monthly and fairly predictable. Rent was payable quarterly. PAYE and VAT also had a predictable pattern. Loan interest payments were fixed. Then staff expenses and other invoice payments were the variable elements. We knew from the profit and loss forecast and budget, compared to the actual P&L for the previous year, what a reasonable assumption of monthly expenditure would be. But we also knew that some of that had VAT added to it, some with foreign GST, some with no tax, and we knew we could flex the timing and size of the payment runs to a certain extent.

Second, we relentlessly monitored the bank account and the debtor list. The CFO would get copies of the bank transaction prints every day and check against what we forecasted. If customers did not pay when they were expected to, we would chase the project managers and customer account directors as soon as the invoices became overdue. As a result of that we got to the point where we had only a handful of invoices overdue for collection from customers.

Also, since our forecast of receipts went down to customer and invoice level, we were able to tick off what we had received compared to what we were expecting.

Thirdly, we knew what payments we could flex and therefore what our limitations were on payment runs. The extent to which we had cash to pay suppliers was determined by whether the inflows came in as expected. We knew we could flex PAYE payments by a few weeks, but there was a limit. And we knew that to keep the business going we had to keep paying the payroll, keep paying the loan interest, keep paying the suppliers. But we also knew that unless we started to make a profit we had to be careful with the timing of those supplier payments, and so we had a fairly tense few months when we only just stayed on the right side of some of our key suppliers.

Conclusions: Accelerate the inflow and slow down the outflow and you can make the cash go a lot further. Also, with careful, detailed monitoring and forecasting you can see a lot more accurately exactly when you need the rescuer to come in, when the investors need to increase their contribution, or (heaven forbid) you need to call the administrators. That's putting it negatively, but it applies positively as well - having surplus cash is not just a safety cushion. Surplus cash allows you to invest in the future without having to ask for extra investment from shareholders or ask for more borrowing. It also allows you to pay bigger dividends to the shareholders. Knowing how big the surplus will be and when it will occur will help to plan investments or dividends or the like.

So whether your business is loss-making or making a healthy profit, detailed, regular cashflow forecasts are essential.